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21 - Ben Campbell amazing answer (Es)

Escena de la película 21: Blackjack

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All right.

Now, who can explain Newton's method and how you use it?

You can use it to solve nonlinear equations.

That's impressive.

That's really good. I mean, I'm very impressed by that,

especially since my class is called Nonlinear Equations.

All right, now somebody tell me something I don't already know.

Anyone? Bueller. Anyone? Bueller.

Newton stole it.

- I'm sorry? - Newton stole it.

Joseph Raphson published this same method 50 years earlier.

If the start value is too far removed from true zero, then it fails.

- I'm sorry, what's your name? - Ben. Ben Campbell.

So Ben Campbell suggests that Joseph Raphson

was the original author of this method.

Well, if that's the case, then why didn't he get any credit?

Well, for one thing, Newton had a better publicist.

And for another, after 1700, we know very little about Raphson

other than the fact that he discovered the Kabbalah

about 300 years before Madonna.

All right, now, let's give Ben a chance for some extra credit, shall we?

We're gonna call this the game show host problem, all right?

Ben, suppose you're on a game show.

And you are given a chance to choose from three different doors, all right?

Now, behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two, goats.

Which door would you choose, Ben?

Door number one?

Door number one. Ben chooses door number one.

All right, now, the game show host,

who, by the way, knows what's behind all the other doors,

decides to open another door. Let's say he chooses door number three.

Behind which sits a goat. Now...

Ben, game show host comes up to you.

He says, " Ben, do you want to stay with door number one

" or go with door number two?"

Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice?

- Yeah. - Well, wait.

Remember, the host knows where the car is

so how do you know he's not playing a trick on you?

Trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat?

Well, I wouldn't really care. I mean, my answer's based on statistics.

Based on variable change.

Variable change? But he just asked you a simple question.

Yeah, which changed everything.

Enlighten us.

Well, when I was originally asked to choose a door,

I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right.

But after he opens one of the doors and then re-offers me the choice,

it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch.

So, yeah, I'll take door number two, and thank you for that extra 33.3%.

Exactly. People, remember,

if you don't know which door to open, always account for variable change.

Now, see, most people wouldn't take the switch

out of paranoia, fear, emotions.

But Mr. Campbell, he kept emotions aside

and let simple math get his ass into a brand-new car!

Which is better than that goat you've been driving around campus.

All right, everybody.

That's the end of the day. Thank you very much.

Your graded papers are down here at the end.

You can pick them up on your way out.

which - cual

variable - variable

value - valor

trick - truco

remember - recuerda

explain - explique

newton - newton

exactly - exactamente

everything - todo

emotions - emociones

earlier - más temprano

little - pequeño

always - siempre

everybody - todos

behind - detrás

three - tres

decides - decide

discovered - descubierto

since - ya que

changed - cambiado

account - cuenta

choice - elección

class - clase

around - alrededor

campbell - campbell

different - diferente

about - acerca de

fails - falla

other - otro

especially - especialmente

choose - escoger

brand - marca

chance - oportunidad

interest - interesar

comes - proviene

chooses - elige

author - autor

suppose - suponer

after - después

based - basado

aside - aparte

something - alguna cosa

called - llamado

problem - problema

would - haría

start - comienzo

before - antes de

better - mejor

bueller - bueller

gonna - va a

choosing - eligiendo

campus - campus

already - ya

another - otro

change - cambio

given - dado

statistics - estadística

graded - calificado

impressed - impresionado

kabbalah - kábala

joseph - joseph

anyone - nadie

impressive - impresionante

knows - sabe

simple - sencillo

method - método

nonlinear - no lineal

years - años

goats - cabras

number - número

trying - molesto

original - original

originally - originalmente

extra - extra

offers - ofertas

papers - papeles

paranoia - paranoia

question - pregunta

people - gente

thing - cosa

equations - ecuaciones

playing - jugando

psychology - psicología

doors - puertas

raphson - raphson

published - publicado

really - de verdad

removed - remoto

enlighten - iluminar

opens - abre

switch - cambiar

where - dónde

reverse - marcha atrás

credit - crédito

right - derecho

madonna - Virgen

shall - deberá

solve - resolver

driving - conducción

asked - preguntó

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