Exercícios
Movie Scenes
21

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21 - Ben Campbell amazing answer (Pt)

Cena do filme 21: A Última Cartada

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All right.

Now, who can explain Newton's method and how you use it?

You can use it to solve nonlinear equations.

That's impressive.

That's really good. I mean, I'm very impressed by that,

especially since my class is called Nonlinear Equations.

All right, now somebody tell me something I don't already know.

Anyone? Bueller. Anyone? Bueller.

Newton stole it.

- I'm sorry? - Newton stole it.

Joseph Raphson published this same method 50 years earlier.

If the start value is too far removed from true zero, then it fails.

- I'm sorry, what's your name? - Ben. Ben Campbell.

So Ben Campbell suggests that Joseph Raphson

was the original author of this method.

Well, if that's the case, then why didn't he get any credit?

Well, for one thing, Newton had a better publicist.

And for another, after 1700, we know very little about Raphson

other than the fact that he discovered the Kabbalah

about 300 years before Madonna.

All right, now, let's give Ben a chance for some extra credit, shall we?

We're gonna call this the game show host problem, all right?

Ben, suppose you're on a game show.

And you are given a chance to choose from three different doors, all right?

Now, behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two, goats.

Which door would you choose, Ben?

Door number one?

Door number one. Ben chooses door number one.

All right, now, the game show host,

who, by the way, knows what's behind all the other doors,

decides to open another door. Let's say he chooses door number three.

Behind which sits a goat. Now...

Ben, game show host comes up to you.

He says, " Ben, do you want to stay with door number one

" or go with door number two?"

Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice?

- Yeah. - Well, wait.

Remember, the host knows where the car is

so how do you know he's not playing a trick on you?

Trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat?

Well, I wouldn't really care. I mean, my answer's based on statistics.

Based on variable change.

Variable change? But he just asked you a simple question.

Yeah, which changed everything.

Enlighten us.

Well, when I was originally asked to choose a door,

I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right.

But after he opens one of the doors and then re-offers me the choice,

it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch.

So, yeah, I'll take door number two, and thank you for that extra 33.3%.

Exactly. People, remember,

if you don't know which door to open, always account for variable change.

Now, see, most people wouldn't take the switch

out of paranoia, fear, emotions.

But Mr. Campbell, he kept emotions aside

and let simple math get his ass into a brand-new car!

Which is better than that goat you've been driving around campus.

All right, everybody.

That's the end of the day. Thank you very much.

Your graded papers are down here at the end.

You can pick them up on your way out.

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which - qual

variable - variável

value - valor

trick - truque

remember - lembrar

explain - explicar

newton - newton

exactly - exatamente

everything - tudo

emotions - emoções

earlier - mais cedo

little - pequeno

always - sempre

everybody - todo mundo

behind - atrás

three - três

decides - decide

discovered - descobriu

since - desde a

changed - mudou

account - conta

choice - escolha

class - classe

around - por aí

campbell - campbell

different - diferente

about - sobre

fails - falha

other - de outros

especially - especialmente

choose - escolher

brand - marca

chance - chance

interest - interesse

comes - vem

chooses - escolhe

author - autor

suppose - suponha

after - depois de

based - sediada

aside - a parte, de lado

something - alguma coisa

called - chamado

problem - problema

would - seria

start - começar

before - antes

better - melhor

bueller - construtor

gonna - vai

choosing - escolhendo

campus - campus

already - já

another - outro

change - mudança

given - dado

statistics - estatisticas

graded - classificado

impressed - impressionado

kabbalah - Cabala

joseph - joseph

anyone - alguém

impressive - impressionante

knows - sabe

simple - simples

method - método

nonlinear - não linear

years - anos

goats - cabras

number - número

trying - tentando

original - original

originally - originalmente

extra - extra

offers - ofertas

papers - papéis

paranoia - paranóia

question - questão

people - pessoas

thing - coisa

equations - equações

playing - jogando

psychology - psicologia

doors - portas

raphson - raphson

published - publicados

really - realmente

removed - removido

enlighten - ilumine

opens - abre

switch - interruptor

where - onde

reverse - marcha ré

credit - crédito

right - certo

madonna - madonna

shall - deve

solve - resolver

driving - dirigindo

asked - perguntei

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